Growing disaffection and disgust with MAGA candidates among Republican supportive voters is visible in Arizona. The ‘Haley Effect’ signals national disaffection.
Updated with 2024 Primary results through April 23
This report analyzes voter behavior in Arizona, highlighting shifts within the GOP base from the 2020 presidential election to the 2022 midterms, using Cast Vote Record (CVR) data. It defines the Disaffection Index and the Disgust Index and then documents an increase among Republican supportive voters in both indices. The result indicates growing disenchantment and cross-party voting. When combined with the persistent strength of Nikki Haley, these findings suggest a challenging landscape for MAGA-aligned candidates in 2024.
As a key swing state in the last two elections, Arizona provides a helpful window into a broader Republican problem. With hundreds of MAGA candidates on the ballot across the country this November, this study provides a valuable framework for analyzing their prospects and their results.