Things Fall Apart — Hard Evidence of a Collapsing MAGA Movement

Growing disaffection and disgust with MAGA candidates among Republican supportive voters is visible in Arizona. The ‘Haley Effect’ signals national disaffection.

   Updated with 2024 Primary results through April 23

 This report analyzes voter behavior in Arizona, highlighting shifts within the GOP base from the 2020 presidential election to the 2022 midterms, using Cast Vote Record (CVR) data. It defines the Disaffection Index and the Disgust Index and then documents an increase among Republican supportive voters in both indices. The result indicates growing disenchantment and cross-party voting. When combined with the persistent strength of Nikki Haley, these findings suggest a challenging landscape for MAGA-aligned candidates in 2024.

As a key swing state in the last two elections, Arizona provides a helpful window into a broader Republican problem. With hundreds of MAGA candidates on the ballot across the country this November, this study provides a valuable framework for analyzing their prospects and their results.

Author: Larry Moore

I founded the Clear Ballot Group in 2009 as an audit firm. My goal was to bring a new class of tools to help election officials build trust in the integrity of their elections. In early 2018, Clear Ballot became the first company in over a decade to bring a new voting system successfully through federal certification. I retired from Clear Ballot in December 2018. Now, I've joined Benny White and Tim Halvorsen to bring our expertise to debunk the disinformation surrounding the Maricopa 2020 election.