Featured

Things Fall Apart — Observations on a Divided Electorate

Growing Disaffection and disgust with MAGA candidates among Republican supportive voters is captured in Arizona’s voter data.

This report analyzes voter behavior in Arizona, highlighting shifts within the GOP base from the 2020 presidential election to the 2022 midterms, using Cast Vote Record (CVR) data. It defines the Disaffection Index and the Disgust Index and then documents an increase among Republican supportive voters in both indices. The result indicates growing disenchantment and cross-party voting. The findings suggest a challenging landscape for MAGA-aligned candidates in 2024.

Featured

The Ninja Texts Unlocked

Larry Moore

June 8, 2023

This week, two articles published by the Arizona Republic and USA Today have unveiled the extent to which, in our view, leaders of the Arizona Legislature and the Cyber Ninjas have – in their own words – obstructed the distribution of public information, obfuscated its content, and perpetrated fraud. These two articles have generated tremendous public interest.  

The Arizona Republic has granted us, The Audit Guys,  permission to post these articles on our website. While both articles are free to use, we strongly urge you to support The Republic’s journalism by subscribing to the Arizona Republic. Here’s why.

  • For nearly two years, the Arizona Republic has relentlessly pursued members of the Arizona legislature, Cyber Ninjas, Inc. (CNI) and its president, Doug Logan to turn over documents related to the so-called Maricopa “audit.” They have spent well over $1 million in legal fees to force CNI to turn over information that the Arizona Supreme Court has twice declared is public.
  • The fee is only $1/month for 12 months. Subscribe now to get all the news.

But the battle is not over. Doug Logan continues obstructing court orders despite a $50,000 / day fine. A court hearing is set for early July to rule on complaints by The Republic that, hopefully, will compel Doug Logan to turn over all the court-ordered material. We estimate there are 7 – 10,000  missing or redacted text messages. The majority of these texts are conversations between Logan and members of the Stop the Steal movement.

The presiding judge, John Hannah, has said this case is the “most important case in my 16 years on the bench.”

Here are the articles published on June 6 and 7, 2023 and written by Robert Anglen:

‘Our numbers are screwy’: Cyber Ninjas CEO admits he couldn’t tally hand count of Arizona ballots 

Arizona ‘audit’ leader traded messages with dozens of ‘Stop the Steal’ partisans, texts show

Finally, here’s an article, not behind a paywall, that describes the extent of Logan’s obstruction.

Published on May 24, 2023 by Ryan Randazzo, Arizona Republic

Thousands of texts from Trump allies stay hidden in Arizona a year after judge’s order on ‘audit’

Featured

Detailed Review of the Maricopa County 2022 General Election

Benny White, JD

January 6, 2023

We have just completed our detailed review of the public records available for the 2022 General Election in Maricopa County. There is a Word document describing the Excel workbook where the details are placed. We have also published a series of maps showing the patterns of crossover voting for the Governor, Secretary of State and Attorney General races. These maps show the number of votes per precinct cast by a disaffected voter for the other party candidate. We define a disaffected voter as one who supports the majority of candidates from one political party but casts a vote for the opposite party candidate in specified races.

Featured

Maricopa Wack-a-Mole: The Audit Guys Debunk Dr. Shiva Ayyaduri’s “Analysis” of Ballot Images

Benny White, J.D.

March 8, 2022

Dr. Shiva Ayyadurai’s ballot image analysis report has finally been published and has about the same value as the reports published in September 2021 by the CyberNinjas and Randy Pullen.  They are all worthless, but very misleading and expensive.  Dr. Ayyadurai’s report is an extensive disinformation effort.

To summarize, Dr. Ayyadurai’s claims of differences between his analysis and the Dominion results reflect his misunderstanding of electronic adjudication in particular and election administration in general. Our analysis of his report shows how Dr. Ayyadurai’s faulty analysis can be easily explained with an accurate review of the Cast Vote Record, invalidating his conclusions.

Featured

Maricopa Hoax: Roundup of Articles

There was such interest in our “Maricopa Hoax” series that we thought our readership would like to see our articles in one place.

Maricopa Hoax: The Ninjas Made up the Numbers

October 1 breaking story where we declare, based on evidence from Randy Pullen’s Sept. 24 report, that the AZ Senate President’s / Cyber Ninja’s process was a hoax and shameful episode in America’s history.

Maricopa Hoax: Our review of the “not final” Senate machine count report

October 12 analysis of the 695-page report comparing the Ninjas’ hand-count ballot count to the AZ Senate’s machine-count. It’s not a pretty picure.

Maricopa Hoax: Debunking Disinformation & Confronting its Spreaders

October 14, 2021 presentation to the Boston-Cambridge Election Science Working Group chaired by MIT Professor Charles Stewart.

Our other supporting reports.

Maricopa Hoax: Deception and Coverup

November 21 analysis of our belief that the public was deceived and that a coverup is still underway.

Senate Machine Count Analysis Report Coming Soon

Benny White, J.D.

December 22, 2021

I’ve just finished transcribing the 724 page PDF document submitted by Randy Pullen on September 24, 2021 and released to the public on October 10, 2021 into machine-readable form. It’s posted on our website in an Excel workbook format.

There are a huge number of mistakes in the report, boxes missing, batches counted in boxes where the batches were not really there, missing batches that were in the boxes, miscounting ballots in the boxes and in the batches.

This effort to translate the PDF document into a machine-readable format took a tremendous amount of time and work but was necessary so we can properly analyze what the “auditors” did during the machine count.

I have updated our November 15 with links to the new machine count spreadsheet. Here is a link to the report and another one directly to the spreadsheet if you want to analyze it for yourself.

I intend to get a complete analysis report out before the end of the year with the details about the errors made during the machine count.

Maricopa Hoax: Deception and Coverup

Larry Moore

November 21, 2021

We believe that Arizona Senate President Karen Fann, Cyber Ninja CEO Doug Logan, and Randall Pullen, co-liaison to the Senate’s “forensic audit,” engaged in deceptive practices designed to mislead the public. Furthermore, Fann and Logan are continuing to engage in a coverup.

Combined, their efforts have attempted to cast doubt on the integrity of Maricopa County’s election results and undermined Biden’s victory in Arizona.

Background

On September 24, 2021, the Cyber Ninjas released their long-awaited final report covering 58 days of hand counting 2.1 million ballots from the 2020 Maricopa County General Election. At the same event, Randell Pullen, co-liaison for the Arizona Senate, released a report on the Senate’s machine count of ballots.

For a process that had riveted the nation for months, the Ninjas devoted less than 500 words to summarize the findings of their hand count.

  • They did not count the same ballots reported in the official canvass.
  • Without a shred of supporting detail, they asserted Biden gained 99 votes, and Trump lost 261 votes.

Pullen’s report did have some detail, but it undercut the Ninjas’ report. Covering only 2.4% of the ballots – 48,000 out of 2.1 million cast – our analysis, widely reported, revealed that the Senate’s machine count was very close to the official canvass but not at all not to the Ninjas’ count.

Several additional facts support our belief of deception and a coverup.

A persistent lack of transparency

Leading up to the September 24 report, Ken Bennett, co-liaison to the “forensic audit” and former Arizona Secretary of State, had repeatedly complained that the Cyber Ninjas refused all his requests for comparative data. When he did obtain data from the Senate’s machine count in late July, Bennett released it to us to compare the Senate’s ballot counts against the official results. Upon hearing of Bennett’s transgression, Randell Pullen, the other Senate co-liaison, denied Bennett access to the Wesley Bolin Building to observe the machine count.

Not an Audit

The Ninjas violated the most fundamental precept of an audit. An audit compares two independently produced results based on the same data. The Ninjas reported on different ballots. Once they figured out how to thwart an audit of their results, the Ninjas could say anything.  

Greg Sargent, writing in a Washington Post editorial, said,

“When news organizations reported on that “finding,” they blew the story badly. They widely declared in headlines that the “audit” had “confirmed” Biden’s victory, implying that it was an effort to empirically verify the outcome, to reassure people who “believed” the outcome might be in doubt.

In fact, it was the opposite: an effort to further undermine the legitimacy of the Democratic victory. This is not changed by the fact that it failed to find a way to declare outright that Biden lost the state: Indeed, the very same announcement of its “findings” also declared that it had found serious fraud, just not enough to change the result.”

Misleading reports

On September 24, Randall Pullen released his report that discussed the Senate’s machine count of ballots. Buried at the end was a 17-page extract of the complete 695-page report, written by the Ninjas and annotated by Pullen. On October 1, six days later, we issued our analysis that showed the Senate’s machine count of ballots exceeded the Ninjas’ hand count by over 15,000 out of 48,000 ballots. Pullen’s response? The Ninjas’ results were “preliminary” even though his report did not mention preliminary data.

The full 695-page report was released on October 10 in response to our demand that the Senate had no grounds to withhold public information in their possession. It did not take us long to conclude that Pullen’s analysis was so laughably inaccurate that there had to be more to the story. 

Sure enough, Robert Anglen, writing for the Arizona Republic, reported in an article on November 1, “Cyber Ninjas was never required to deliver definitive report on election results, contract shows.”

The Pullen report enabled the Ninjas to bill the Senate for their services. There was no requirement for accuracy.

We stand behind our conclusion that the Ninjas made up the numbers.

Coverup

Despite their empty assertions of “complete transparency,” Fann and Logan have stonewalled rulings by the Maricopa County Superior Court and the Arizona Court of Appeals. Both courts ruled the data we were seeking was subject to Arizona’s Public Records laws. At least two parties – American Oversight and the Arizona Republic – are still in court to obtain all the public records produced during this “legislative investigation” of the 2020 Maricopa County General Election. Senator Fann still faces a contempt hearing over her refusal to turn over the Cyber Ninjas’ audit documents.

From the outset, our objective was to audit their recount of Maricopa’s 2.1 million ballots from the 2020 General Election. Our audit was designed to compare the Ninjas’ detailed ballot and vote counts against the corresponding official results organized by ballot storage boxes.

Coda

On November 1, Cyber Ninja CEO Doug Logan released the data on ballot and vote counts by storage box in response to threats to sue.

Below is a summary of our findings; our complete report is here.

  • As reported above, the Ninjas deliberately counted the wrong ballots. No other explanation exists other than to support their goal of changing the outcome or, failing that, to manufacture doubt.
  • We found evidence that the Ninjas made up their September 24 findings.
  • Using their data, we showed that had the Ninjas counted the ballots correctly, they would have had to explain how a company with no experience in elections could somehow “find” 2,012 more ballots and that Trump gained 1,367 votes and Biden gained 993 votes. Contrast those numbers with their September 24 announcement that they counted 994 fewer ballots, Trump lost 261 votes and Biden gained 99. It is not just that no one would believe them but that they would come under intense scrutiny to explain their findings.

We stand by our assertion that the Ninjas made up the numbers and that Senator Fann enabled a hoax so great that it has the potential to undermine our democracy.

Our Review of the Cyber Ninja Hand Count and the Senate Machine Count

Benny White, J.D

November 15, 2021

We have finished our review of the documents published by the Arizona Senate on November 1. Here is our report.

Sen. Karen Fann and several other Senate members authorized an investigation of the 2020 Maricopa County General Election and told the court and the public that the purpose of the audit was for election integrity. She said the audit of Maricopa County would find various laws and procedures that needed to be improved and that the improvements would be included in new legislation.

If Senator Fann was really interested in finding out the problems that the Arizona counties had during the 2020 General Election she would have surveyed all 15 Arizona counties, not just Maricopa County. Each county has its own set of issues to deal with. She would have coordinated her survey with the Arizona Secretary of State and the county Recorders and elections directors. She did none of that. Instead she hired a company with ZERO experience dealing with elections and election audits, had no knowledge of Arizona election law and procedures but had extremely close ties to the Trump campaign.

We can now see the results. It does not paint a flattering picture of Arizona or our state legislators.

The Senate “forensic audit” lasted 7 months, spent $9 million and produced meaningless results.

Sen. Karen Fann and the Cyber Ninjas “tried” to hand count 2.1 million ballots and proved a couple of things.

  1. They were not able to accurately hand count either the number of ballots cast in the Maricopa County 2020 General Election or the votes on those ballots, and
  2. They spent about $9 million over 7 months, so far, and have proven absolutely nothing.

The Ninjas were convinced that the auditors could not trust anything the county said and the Dominion election management system could not count the ballots or the votes correctly or had been manipulated so that the official results were not valid.

This presumption was fatal to the validity of the “forensic audit”.  It caused them to never actually audit the election results but rather to attempt to create a new result that the public would accept.  Unfortunately, the procedures they followed and the records they kept and relied on to announce results were so erroneous that nothing they reported could be relied on by the public.

Maricopa Hoax – Evidence the Ninjas results were made up

In an election contest, there is a mathematical identity that defines the relationship between ballots cast and votes for a given contest. For any collection of ballots in a contest, even on a single ballot, the number of ballots cast in the contest must equal the sum of votes for candidates (including write-ins), plus the number of overvotes and undervotes.

# Ballots = [Sum (votes for candidates) + Write-in votes + Undervotes  + Overvotes ] / VoteRule

Where:

  • OverVotes = N x VoteRule (where N = number of ballots where the designated contest is overvoted)
  • UnderVotes = Vote Rule – Number of Votes  

In the September 24 announcement, as sown below, the identity was satisfied.

However, in the data delivered on November 1, at least 50 boxes had a difference between the reported ballot count and the sum of votes, overvotes, and undervotes – and those differences did not cancel out each other. An excerpt of boxes where the identity is not preserved is shown below.

Therefore, the identity of all ballots could not have been preserved.

In conclusion, the Ninjas made up the results they announced on September 24, 2021.