Dr. Shiva Ayyadurai’s ballot image analysis report has finally been published and has about the same value as the reports published in September 2021 by the CyberNinjas and Randy Pullen. They are all worthless, but very misleading and expensive. Dr. Ayyadurai’s report is an extensive disinformation effort.
To summarize, Dr. Ayyadurai’s claims of differences between his analysis and the Dominion results reflect his misunderstanding of electronic adjudication in particular and election administration in general. Our analysis of his report shows how Dr. Ayyadurai’s faulty analysis can be easily explained with an accurate review of the Cast Vote Record, invalidating his conclusions.
I’ve just finished transcribing the 724 page PDF document submitted by Randy Pullen on September 24, 2021 and released to the public on October 10, 2021 into machine-readable form. It’s posted on our website in an Excel workbook format.
There are a huge number of mistakes in the report, boxes missing, batches counted in boxes where the batches were not really there, missing batches that were in the boxes, miscounting ballots in the boxes and in the batches.
This effort to translate the PDF document into a machine-readable format took a tremendous amount of time and work but was necessary so we can properly analyze what the “auditors” did during the machine count.
I have updated our November 15 with links to the new machine count spreadsheet. Here is a link to the report and another one directly to the spreadsheet if you want to analyze it for yourself.
I intend to get a complete analysis report out before the end of the year with the details about the errors made during the machine count.
We believe that Arizona Senate President Karen Fann, Cyber Ninja CEO Doug Logan, and Randall Pullen, co-liaison to the Senate’s “forensic audit,” engaged in deceptive practices designed to mislead the public. Furthermore, Fann and Logan are continuing to engage in a coverup.
Combined, their efforts have attempted to cast doubt on the integrity of Maricopa County’s election results and undermined Biden’s victory in Arizona.
On September 24, 2021, the Cyber Ninjas released their long-awaited final report covering 58 days of hand counting 2.1 million ballots from the 2020 Maricopa County General Election. At the same event, Randell Pullen, co-liaison for the Arizona Senate, released a report on the Senate’s machine count of ballots.
For a process that had riveted the nation for months, the Ninjas devoted less than 500 words to summarize the findings of their hand count.
They did not count the same ballots reported in the official canvass.
Without a shred of supporting detail, they asserted Biden gained 99 votes, and Trump lost 261 votes.
Pullen’s report did have some detail, but it undercut the Ninjas’ report. Covering only 2.4% of the ballots – 48,000 out of 2.1 million cast – our analysis, widely reported, revealed that the Senate’s machine count was very close to the official canvass but not at all not to the Ninjas’ count.
Several additional facts support our belief of deception and a coverup.
A persistent lack of transparency
Leading up to the September 24 report, Ken Bennett, co-liaison to the “forensic audit” and former Arizona Secretary of State, had repeatedly complained that the Cyber Ninjas refused all his requests for comparative data. When he did obtain data from the Senate’s machine count in late July, Bennett released it to us to compare the Senate’s ballot counts against the official results. Upon hearing of Bennett’s transgression, Randell Pullen, the other Senate co-liaison, denied Bennett access to the Wesley Bolin Building to observe the machine count.
Not an Audit
The Ninjas violated the most fundamental precept of an audit. An audit compares two independently produced results based on the same data. The Ninjas reported on different ballots. Once they figured out how to thwart an audit of their results, the Ninjas could say anything.
Greg Sargent, writing in a Washington Post editorial, said,
“When news organizations reported on that “finding,” they blew the story badly. They widely declared in headlines that the “audit” had “confirmed” Biden’s victory, implying that it was an effort to empirically verify the outcome, to reassure people who “believed” the outcome might be in doubt.
In fact, it was the opposite: an effort to further undermine the legitimacy of the Democratic victory. This is not changed by the fact that it failed to find a way to declare outright that Biden lost the state: Indeed, the very same announcement of its “findings” also declared that it had found serious fraud, just not enough to change the result.”
On September 24, Randall Pullen released his report that discussed the Senate’s machine count of ballots. Buried at the end was a 17-page extract of the complete 695-page report, written by the Ninjas and annotated by Pullen. On October 1, six days later, we issued our analysis that showed the Senate’s machine count of ballots exceeded the Ninjas’ hand count by over 15,000 out of 48,000 ballots. Pullen’s response? The Ninjas’ results were “preliminary” even though his report did not mention preliminary data.
The full 695-page report was released on October 10 in response to our demand that the Senate had no grounds to withhold public information in their possession. It did not take us long to conclude that Pullen’s analysis was so laughably inaccurate that there had to be more to the story.
Sure enough, Robert Anglen, writing for the Arizona Republic, reported in an article on November 1, “Cyber Ninjas was never required to deliver definitive report on election results, contract shows.”
The Pullen report enabled the Ninjas to bill the Senate for their services. There was no requirement for accuracy.
We stand behind our conclusion that the Ninjas made up the numbers.
Despite their empty assertions of “complete transparency,” Fann and Logan have stonewalled rulings by the Maricopa County Superior Court and the Arizona Court of Appeals. Both courts ruled the data we were seeking was subject to Arizona’s Public Records laws. At least two parties – American Oversight and the Arizona Republic – are still in court to obtain all the public records produced during this “legislative investigation” of the 2020 Maricopa County General Election. Senator Fann still faces a contempt hearing over her refusal to turn over the Cyber Ninjas’ audit documents.
From the outset, our objective was to audit their recount of Maricopa’s 2.1 million ballots from the 2020 General Election. Our audit was designed to compare the Ninjas’ detailed ballot and vote counts against the corresponding official results organized by ballot storage boxes.
On November 1, Cyber Ninja CEO Doug Logan released the data on ballot and vote counts by storage box in response to threats to sue.
As reported above, the Ninjas deliberately counted the wrong ballots. No other explanation exists other than to support their goal of changing the outcome or, failing that, to manufacture doubt.
We found evidence that the Ninjas made up their September 24 findings.
Using their data, we showed that had the Ninjas counted the ballots correctly, they would have had to explain how a company with no experience in elections could somehow “find” 2,012 more ballots and that Trump gained 1,367 votes and Biden gained 993 votes. Contrast those numbers with their September 24 announcement that they counted 994 fewer ballots, Trump lost 261 votes and Biden gained 99. It is not just that no one would believe them but that they would come under intense scrutiny to explain their findings.
We stand by our assertion that the Ninjas made up the numbers and that Senator Fann enabled a hoax so great that it has the potential to undermine our democracy.
We have finished our review of the documents published by the Arizona Senate on November 1. Here is our report.
Sen. Karen Fann and several other Senate members authorized an investigation of the 2020 Maricopa County General Election and told the court and the public that the purpose of the audit was for election integrity. She said the audit of Maricopa County would find various laws and procedures that needed to be improved and that the improvements would be included in new legislation.
If Senator Fann was really interested in finding out the problems that the Arizona counties had during the 2020 General Election she would have surveyed all 15 Arizona counties, not just Maricopa County. Each county has its own set of issues to deal with. She would have coordinated her survey with the Arizona Secretary of State and the county Recorders and elections directors. She did none of that. Instead she hired a company with ZERO experience dealing with elections and election audits, had no knowledge of Arizona election law and procedures but had extremely close ties to the Trump campaign.
We can now see the results. It does not paint a flattering picture of Arizona or our state legislators.
The Senate “forensic audit” lasted 7 months, spent $9 million and produced meaningless results.
Sen. Karen Fann and the Cyber Ninjas “tried” to hand count 2.1 million ballots and proved a couple of things.
They were not able to accurately hand count either the number of ballots cast in the Maricopa County 2020 General Election or the votes on those ballots, and
They spent about $9 million over 7 months, so far, and have proven absolutely nothing.
The Ninjas were convinced that the auditors could not trust anything the county said and the Dominion election management system could not count the ballots or the votes correctly or had been manipulated so that the official results were not valid.
This presumption was fatal to the validity of the “forensic audit”. It caused them to never actually audit the election results but rather to attempt to create a new result that the public would accept. Unfortunately, the procedures they followed and the records they kept and relied on to announce results were so erroneous that nothing they reported could be relied on by the public.
In an election contest, there is a mathematical identity that defines the relationship between ballots cast and votes for a given contest. For any collection of ballots in a contest, even on a single ballot, the number of ballots cast in the contest must equal the sum of votes for candidates (including write-ins), plus the number of overvotes and undervotes.
OverVotes = N x VoteRule (where N = number of ballots where the designated contest is overvoted)
UnderVotes = Vote Rule – Number of Votes
In the September 24 announcement, as sown below, the identity was satisfied.
However, in the data delivered on November 1, at least 50 boxes had a difference between the reported ballot count and the sum of votes, overvotes, and undervotes – and those differences did not cancel out each other. An excerpt of boxes where the identity is not preserved is shown below.
Therefore, the identity of all ballots could not have been preserved.
In conclusion, the Ninjas made up the results they announced on September 24, 2021.
October 1 breaking story where we declare, based on evidence from Randy Pullen’s Sept. 24 report, that the AZ Senate President’s / Cyber Ninja’s process was a hoax and shameful episode in America’s history.
Yesterday, October 15, 2021 the unannounced campaign of Donald Trump for President 2024 issued a Press Release which contained a number of false claims about what happened in the 2020 General Election in Pima County.
I used official public records to completely debunk every claim made by Trump and his acolyte, Dr. Shiva. You can read the rebuttal here.
At the close of business Friday, October 8, the Senate’s lawyer, Kory Langhofer posted the full report Randy Pullen submitted to the Senate on September 24.
We initially introduced the concept of “disaffected voters” in our earlier work. Now we need to introduce one more new concept to describe our work and that is “Boxes of Interest.” When we looked at the recent report we saw a number of boxes where there was a difference between the reported Ninja hand count of ballots and the Senate machine count. We decided that where there was a difference of at least 25 ballots we would take a further look at those particular “boxes of interest” to see what, if any, those differences made in the credibility of the ballot counts of the Ninja hand count and Senate machine count. Here is a table that shows the impact.
The Arizona Republic highlighted our finding that over 311,000 ballots were involved in the boxes of interest where the Ninja hand count and the Senate machine count differed significantly. This large number of ballots breaks down into 167,000 where the Ninjas did not report anything about their hand count and 144,000 where they did report something but there were still significant differences with the machine count.
Our initial analysis showed the report completely discredited any comments made by Pullen or Doug Logan about the accuracy of the Senate “forensic audit.” For example, Pullen now says the report he submitted, and Sen. Fann subsequently submitted to the Attorney General when she asked for a criminal investigation of everything the Ninjas have been saying, was only preliminary. Since it is the only report of the extended audit that has been released to the public we are now going through that report in detail to see how it stacks up against the official results.
The answer is not very well. The report is very difficult to deal with. It is 695 pages long (actually 724) in PDF format. The first thing we have to do is put the information into a machine readable format to compare the hand count and machine count numbers against the official results. We use Microsoft Excel for that part of the work.
Then we try to figure out which boxes and ballots are indicated by the entries in the report. Sometimes this is straightforward and the “First Batch” entry can be related to the Ballot Manifest reported by Maricopa County. At other times we have to look at the Batch numbers and find them in the official results using the Cast Vote Record. That allows us to compare the official results of ballot counts to both the Senate machine count and the Ninja hand count of ballots.
There are problems with both the Ninjas reporting and the Senate’s supposedly final report submitted to the Senate on September 24. Doug Logan claimed to have an accurate ballot and vote count which is impossible to verify. There were also numerous claims about voter registration and voting irregularities which have been fully investigated and debunked by Maricopa County and other election knowledgeable experts.
The machine count report shows many batches of ballots that were actually counted by the machines are not reported in the report even though it is apparent by the total count that the batches missing from the report are included in the machine count total. This shows the confusion in the way Randy Pullen published his report.
Sometimes it is just impossible to figure out what the report is trying to say, as with the two boxes of 15592, which actually had 1988 and 946 ballots for a total of 2934, instead of 1280 and 1652, for a total of 2932. Someone, at some point, moved ballots around in these two boxes. The total votes for the two boxes, combined, should be correct but the boxes don’t agree with the official results after the Ninjas have gone through them.
Here’s the ballot manifest sheet for Pallet 40 where these boxes lived. It is not a lot of help either.
There are always transposition errors where someone along the line wrote something down and when someone else tried to read it or enter it into a spreadsheet they made a mistake. There are also boxes where the batches are obviously counted twice, and there were more than just a few.
Our bottom line is that there are so many errors in the machine count report and the disagreements it shows between the machine count and the hand count that nothing the Ninjas or Randy Pullen have to say about how many ballots have been counted or how many votes anyone received cannot be considered accurate. That and the fact that Doug Logan is still saying that the Ninjas have not finished reconciling the hand count numbers (of ballots) convince us, once again, that any discussion of votes based on this “forensic audit” are completely meaningless.
The official results announced last November were correct then and they are still correct today.
On Friday, September 24, the political world held their breath as the Cyber Ninjas and other pro-Trump contractors delivered their report on the accuracy of Arizona’s 2020 presidential election. Surprisingly, and somewhat comforting, the Ninjas said that Trump lost 261 votes. Not surprisingly, the Cyber Ninjas affirmed that Joe Biden held onto his 45,000-vote lead in Maricopa County and gained 99 votes.
The next day, the Washington Post quoted Senator Fann, “This [the fact that the audit matches Maricopa’s official machine count] is the most important and encouraging finding of the audit. This finding therefore addresses the sharpest concerns about the integrity of the certified results in the 2020 general election.”
We held a darker view: Were Senator Fann and the country victims of an epic hoax?
Buried in Randall Pullen’s (Arizona Senate’s co-liasion) report of the Senate’s machine count were 17 pages of innocuous-looking tables with no description of the column headings. Anyone with 15 seconds of instruction, and a calculator can come close to our findings in less than 15 minutes.
Herein, our report provides evidence developed by analyzing Pullen’s report. Starting on page 20, he provides an extract from the Ninja’s 695-page report entitled “AZ Audit Consolidation Worksheet 7/10/2021” (hereafter, “Consolidated Worksheet”), which shows:
A difference of 15,692 ballots when the Ninja’s hand count of ballots is subtracted from the Senate’s machine count. In short, with this enormous discrepancy, any discussion of vote counts – including Biden’s 99 vote gain and Trump’s 261 vote loss – is meaningless.
The difference between our published counts from July 12 and the Senate’s machine count of ballots shows a difference of five ballots. In short, as far back as July 12, we predicted the ballot count per box which now serves as an independent audit of the Senate’s machine count of ballots by box.
While everyone was breathing relief that the Ninjas exercise – don’t call it an audit – upheld Maricopa County’s official results, our antennas were already up because three pesky facts have continued to bother us.
The Ninjas did not count the same set of ballots. The Cyber Ninjas said their results tracked the county’s certified results even though they decided to count about 27,000 ballots that Maricopa Elections did not count and ignore about the same number of ballots Maricopa did count. When ballots are damaged or fail tabulation, a two-person bi-partisan team copies the voter’s choices onto a clean ballot in a process called “duplication.” The Cyber Ninjas, claiming there were fewer original ballots than duplicates, counted the original ballots and ignored the duplicates. Curious.
Senator Fann is hiding something. The Senate continues to fight the release of public data on grounds that Arizona’s courts have decisively ruled against. Included in the withheld documents are batch and box-level ballot counts, just like those contained in Pullen’s report on the Senate’s machine count. More on this below.
A curious anomaly. Garrett Archer, a reporter at Phoenix’s ABC15 News Affiliate, noticed that the ballot counts for the Presidential and the U.S. Senate contests did not match. The Ninjas excuse? “NOTE: Vote totals for the presidential and senatorial elections mismatch slightly primarily due to small differences (emphasis ours) in hand counts among the 2.1M million ballots.”
This last item – a mismatch in the ballot counts on contests that appeared on the same ballot – piqued our interest because such a mismatch should be impossible.
Now, with Pullen’s report, we had something meaty we could dig into.
In the words of Seth Meyers, “It’s time for a closer look.”
First, a few stats:
Our focus was the 17-page extract at the end of Randall Pullen’s report mentioned above. That extract is from the above mentioned Consolidated Worksheet. The worksheet in Pullen’s report is the only detailed data released so far by the Ninjas and is one of the documents we have sought since our August 11 public records request.
The Consolidated Worksheet enumerates the results of five methods the Senate and the Ninjas used to audit their ballot count as shown in rows 2-6 in the table below. In row 1, is a reference to our July 12, 2021 published report which maps Maricopa’s official canvass to storage boxes. We use this report to audit the AZ Senate’s machine count. As shown in row 2, the difference is 5 ballots
* The Senate’s machine count matches the official results (CVR) within 5 ballots. Since the machine count was so close, remaining discrepancies are computed from the Senate’s own counts. In short, the Senate’s counts audit the Ninja’s hand count.
** Discrepancies expressed as absolute values to prevent plusses and minuses from cancelling out.
*** Discrepancies expressed as simple differences to show excess ballots counted.
Below is a timeline of our attempts to provide information enabling the Ninjas to check their results against the official results. We did this, not out of any belief that what they were doing was valid because we do not. Rather, we wanted to show that Senator Fann and the Ninjas we were prepared to hold them accountable for spreading disinformation.
We believe our worst fears have happened – the entire exercise in hand counting ballots on lazy Susans for two months, was a hoax.
Late May, 2021: we knew that the Ninjas could not produce an audit because they could not compare their results (i.e., ballot counts and vote counts by storage box) against the official results. That is because Maricopa’s reports its results by precinct and voting method (i.e., Early Voting, Election Day, and Provisional). The Ninjas counted by box.
May – June: We developed a “Rosetta Stone” to link the official results to each of 10,341 batches and 1,634 boxes. On June 6, we published the ballot and vote counts for two boxes of ballots and challenged Senator Fann to direct the Ninjas to confirm their counts against ours. The Arizona Republic’s front page of their print edition read, “Put Up or Shut Up.”
June 30: We believe that by the end of June the Ninjas knew their ballot counts were substantially different from Maricopa’s. Furthermore, we believe that someone convinced Senator Fann that the official results were wrong and a separate count would support the Ninja’s hand count and if so, a high-speed machine count of the ballots would confirm that Maricopa’s ballot count was wrong.
July 12: We sent an open letter and spreadsheet to Senator Fann, Kory Langhofer, and Ken Bennett with the ballot counts for 1,634 boxes and the list of boxes that should be counted. A few days prior to Sept. 24, I was told by the Senate’s attorney for the “audit” that the list of boxes was “extremely helpful” to the Ninjas. We now believe it helped them determine which boxes to say they did not count.
July 13: Senator Fann states that their ballot counts did not match the county’s ballot count and that they would initiate a machine count.
July 15: Senators Fann and Peterson conduct a Senate hearing where Doug Logan reveals (skip to 1:23) that his team is confused as to which boxes to count. That is because Maricopa County transferred 1,691 boxes and, of those, 1,634 boxes contained exactly the 2,089,563 ballots listed in the official Canvass. Furthermore, our analysis of the vote counts for every candidate across every contest also matched the official results perfectly.
July 19: Ken Bennett gives us ballot counts for six boxes – five boxes match our published counts exactly. In the sixth box we found a transcription error. The Senate staff reported 1,379 ballots against our published count of 1,397 ballots.
July 21: Ken Bennett provides us with additional 18 box-level ballot counts which had minor differences in four boxes.
July 22: We provided the Arizona Republic with the data that the machine ballot counts had closely matched our prediction of the ballot counts in 24 boxes at an accuracy level of 99.94%.
July 23: Ken Bennett is refused entrance into the Wesley Bolin Building where the Senate’s machine count is underway. It is our view that Bennett has always been interested in a proper audit and gave us the ballot counts out of frustration that the Ninjas had refused to share any information with him. It turns out, we did confirm the machine counting process capable of producing accurate counts.
August 11: We file a public record request for detailed ballot and vote counts organized by batch and box.
Sept 16: We update our July 12 spreadsheet with vote counts for third-party candidate Jo Jorgensen which gives the Ninjas an additional check on their vote counts. Votes for Biden and Jorgensen are not revealed to enable a valid audit where two independent results could be compared.
Sept 21-23: Ee obtain an early draft of the Ninja’s report and publish a report which debunks most of the allegations in Volume III related to voter registration and the “voted file.”
Sept 24: The AZ Senate’s hearing – a mountain of detail and, at the end, an Easter egg. Randall Pullen’s report on the machine count contains 17 pages of detailed ballot counts.
Sept 25-27: we analyze Pullen’s data drawn from the Ninja’s 695-page report.
An enormous discrepancy of 15,692 missing hand counted ballots from 40 boxes out of out of 1,634, supports our opinion that the Ninja’s hand count of ballots was so far off the Senate’s machine count of ballots that any statements about the vote counts (e.g., that Trump lost 261 votes) are meaningless.
2. Our analysis shows that the machine count at the box level agrees with official results; as shown below, the difference in our published box-level ballot counts was off by 5 ballots.
3. We believe the Ninjas have profoundly misled the public, Senator Fann and her colleagues. Senator Fann should exercise oversight, order the release of all public data and publicly distance herself from the Ninjas as quickly as possible.
4. Having zero experience in election audits, the Ninjas announcement that they had confirmed, to a high degree of accuracy, the election results of the second largest county in the country is, we believe, laughable.
5. The assertion that Trump had lost 261 votes was, we believe, a “shiny object” designed to convey believability to an otherwise unbelievable hoax.
We are not done; much is left to do. As we stated in this Op-Ed in the Arizona Republic, Senator Fann must release the Ninja’s findings. Now, with the Arizona Supreme Court upholding the decision of the Appellate Court, she must comply – or be held in contempt. Those court decisions require her to turn over lawfully requested public data including our request of the 695-page Consolidated Worksheet as well as a similarly detailed report containing vote counts.
Once we obtain the data we have requested, we will conclude a real audit of the Ninja’s sham process, publish our results and stand ready to defend them vigorously.
The events surrounding the Maricopa Hoax are a shameful episode in America’s history. Each of us feels lucky to be able to serve America, to protect our elections, debunk lies and confront those who would use their power to spread disinformation and doubt about America’s electoral systems – the heart of our democracy.