Donald Trump’s Claims About Pima County — Wrong Again, Still

Benny White, J.D.

October 16, 2021

Yesterday, October 15, 2021 the unannounced campaign of Donald Trump for President 2024 issued a Press Release which contained a number of false claims about what happened in the 2020 General Election in Pima County.

I do work for the Pima County Republican Party and the Arizona Republican Party as a data analyst. I get voter registration files from all 15 counties in Arizona. Those files include voter information such as residence address, registration status and date, jurisdictional information and voting history, i.e., which elections the voter participated in and what voting method they used. In Pima County there are separate voter registration files for Active voters, Inactive voters and voters whose records are sealed (names only).

During elections I also receive daily and weekly reports from all 15 counties as to mail or early ballots requested and those same ballots returned. I track all of that information on a daily basis to advise the political party and party candidate campaigns how the early voting is going. I do this analysis down to the precinct level and political party registration of the voter. This work is a little bit complicated and involves use of database and spreadsheet software such as MySQL, Microsoft Access and Excel. I am posting my Excel spreadsheet for the last day of Early Voting activity reported by Pima County for the 2020 General Election, November 13. This spreadsheet accounts for every mail and early ballot that was counted except for the voters whose records are sealed. I don’t receive reports for those voters’ activities.

Here are Donald Trump’s claims and I want to debunk each one individually:

When mail ballots started pouring in way higher than normal (at over 87%), this trend [the Republican candidate was steadily outperforming the Republican share of mail-in ballots by 3%, while Joe Biden was underperforming Democrats by 3%] this trend flipped.

False. To begin, there is no way to know whether what is being claimed is true; it can be shown that it is not true. There are no results, i.e., votes for individual candidates, reported until after 8 PM on Election Night. The chart below shows the number of ballots returned on a daily basis by voters in the respective political parties.

Daily Return of Early Ballots in Pima County 2020 General Election

What this shows is that there were always more DEM ballots being returned than REP ballots except for a couple of days in late October and those that were received at the polling place on Election Day and counted after the election. For Trump’s claim to be true DEM voters and non-partisan (PND + IND) voters would have to be voting for Donald Trump. That did not happen in any great numbers in Pima County.

At the close of business on November 2, 2020, about 424,765 ballots had been counted. Analysis of the Cast Vote Record, which is a record of the votes on each ballot cast during the election, shows that for those 424,765 ballots, Joe Biden had received 264,497 votes and Donald Trump had received 150,174 votes, a difference of 114,174 votes. (Beware, the CVR is a BIG file.) The final tally in Pima County was 304,91 for Biden and 207,758 for Trump, a Trump loss by 97,223. Contrary to Trump’s claim that the DEMs dumped a bunch of ballots after they saw he was winning, Trump was never ahead in Pima County and the gap between Biden and Trump actually closed late in the election cycle as the outnumbered REP voters in Pima County finally turned in their meager number of mail ballots or went to the polls on Election Day. The gap closed but it wasn’t enough to make a difference.

“Two precincts in Pima had over 100 percent turnout for mail-in ballots.”

False. The highest voter turnout (percent of mail ballots returned) was Precinct 186 which is about evenly ballots DEM/REP with 276 early ballots returned (96.17%).

“One precinct with 99.5% mail-in turnout had 9,812 ballots counted. Another precinct with 100.6% turnout had 2,182 ballots returned, but only 2,170 mail-ins were ever sent.”

False. As explained above the highest mail return percentage precinct was Precinct 186. The highest overall (early +polling) turnout precinct was Precinct 145 where there were 4,596 early ballots returned and 362 voters went to the polls for a 94.0% voter turnout in that precinct. You see, I use actual data and tell you exactly what I am talking about rather than talking in unverifiable generalities.

There is no way to tell what precinct the second part of this claim is involved other than to say no precinct had a turnout (return rate) of more than 96.17%.

Here’s a chart that shows the percentage of mail ballots returned in every precinct. (For details you will need to look at the spreadsheet.)

Percentage of mail ballots returned from each Pima County precinct

There is also a section of claims in the press release that includes charts by Shiva that appear to be some sort of analysis of mail ballot return rates. However, the data on these charts does not match the official records for Pima County so once again I conclude that they are just making this stuff up hoping the public will buy it.

To close, these latest claims by the unannounced Trump campaign are simply a continuation of claims being made by a group of people and Donald Trump who simply don’t understand voter registration records, voter history, election canvass and other public records involved in elections. They continually pump out this nonsense and expect the public to simply accept it without ever questioning whether it is true or not.

Unfortunately, that seems to be exactly what is happening in our modern social media for news gathering and republishing society.

Maricopa Hoax:Our review of the “not final” Senate machine count report

Benny White, J.D.

Larry Moore

October 12, 2021

At the close of business Friday, October 8, the Senate’s lawyer, Kory Langhofer posted the full report Randy Pullen submitted to the Senate on September 24.

We initially introduced the concept of “disaffected voters” in our earlier work. Now we need to introduce one more new concept to describe our work and that is “Boxes of Interest.” When we looked at the recent report we saw a number of boxes where there was a difference between the reported Ninja hand count of ballots and the Senate machine count. We decided that where there was a difference of at least 25 ballots we would take a further look at those particular “boxes of interest” to see what, if any, those differences made in the credibility of the ballot counts of the Ninja hand count and Senate machine count. Here is a table that shows the impact.

Boxes and Ballots of Interest

The Arizona Republic highlighted our finding that over 311,000 ballots were involved in the boxes of interest where the Ninja hand count and the Senate machine count differed significantly. This large number of ballots breaks down into 167,000 where the Ninjas did not report anything about their hand count and 144,000 where they did report something but there were still significant differences with the machine count.

Our initial analysis showed the report completely discredited any comments made by Pullen or Doug Logan about the accuracy of the Senate “forensic audit.” For example, Pullen now says the report he submitted, and Sen. Fann subsequently submitted to the Attorney General when she asked for a criminal investigation of everything the Ninjas have been saying, was only preliminary. Since it is the only report of the extended audit that has been released to the public we are now going through that report in detail to see how it stacks up against the official results.

The answer is not very well. The report is very difficult to deal with. It is 695 pages long (actually 724) in PDF format. The first thing we have to do is put the information into a machine readable format to compare the hand count and machine count numbers against the official results. We use Microsoft Excel for that part of the work.

Then we try to figure out which boxes and ballots are indicated by the entries in the report. Sometimes this is straightforward and the “First Batch” entry can be related to the Ballot Manifest reported by Maricopa County. At other times we have to look at the Batch numbers and find them in the official results using the Cast Vote Record. That allows us to compare the official results of ballot counts to both the Senate machine count and the Ninja hand count of ballots.

There are problems with both the Ninjas reporting and the Senate’s supposedly final report submitted to the Senate on September 24. Doug Logan claimed to have an accurate ballot and vote count which is impossible to verify. There were also numerous claims about voter registration and voting irregularities which have been fully investigated and debunked by Maricopa County and other election knowledgeable experts.

The machine count report shows many batches of ballots that were actually counted by the machines are not reported in the report even though it is apparent by the total count that the batches missing from the report are included in the machine count total. This shows the confusion in the way Randy Pullen published his report.

Batch Counted But Not Reported

Sometimes it is just impossible to figure out what the report is trying to say, as with the two boxes of 15592, which actually had 1988 and 946 ballots for a total of 2934, instead of 1280 and 1652, for a total of 2932. Someone, at some point, moved ballots around in these two boxes. The total votes for the two boxes, combined, should be correct but the boxes don’t agree with the official results after the Ninjas have gone through them.

A Different Kind of Counting

Here’s the ballot manifest sheet for Pallet 40 where these boxes lived. It is not a lot of help either.

There are always transposition errors where someone along the line wrote something down and when someone else tried to read it or enter it into a spreadsheet they made a mistake. There are also boxes where the batches are obviously counted twice, and there were more than just a few.

Number of Double Counted Ballots

A lot of the boxes don’t include any hand count information or only a partial hand count of the ballots in the box.

No Hand Count Information Reported

Our bottom line is that there are so many errors in the machine count report and the disagreements it shows between the machine count and the hand count that nothing the Ninjas or Randy Pullen have to say about how many ballots have been counted or how many votes anyone received cannot be considered accurate. That and the fact that Doug Logan is still saying that the Ninjas have not finished reconciling the hand count numbers (of ballots) convince us, once again, that any discussion of votes based on this “forensic audit” are completely meaningless.

The official results announced last November were correct then and they are still correct today.

Ninja Claims Debunked – All of Them

Benny White, J.D.

October 8, 2021

Today Maricopa County issued reports debunking all of the claims made by the Cyber Ninjas and their self-proclaimed image analysis expert.

The Ninjas never took the time to inform themselves about Arizona election law or election administration and associated procedures. As a result they spent six months and millions of dollars concocting a bizarre series of claims about irregularities in voter registration and voting that were completely debunked by election officials and others who actually know about elections in a matter of minutes.

Dr. Shiva did not have a clue about the Arizona mail voting system or how mail ballots are verified before they are counted. As a result he completely embarrassed himself by producing a fantasy in an attempt to call the election into question. All he had to do was ask an Arizona election official but he chose to jump the shark and the fantasy went up in a puff of smoke.

Now Randy Pullen is upset with us because we challenged his report of the machine counts of ballots. All he has to do is publish a complete report instead on the erroneous counts of ballots on one pallet out of forty three pallets. We’re waiting Randy. Suggestion – first talk to Doug Logan to see if he ever finished the hand count and then work with him to get your story straight.

We should get a favorable decision from the courts in the next couple of weeks that will allow us to get the public records and then we will painstakingly go through every line of the reports of counts to show the world what a complete waste of time and money this whole fiasco has been.

What next?

Benny White, J.D.

September 18, 2021

The Senate is scheduled to receive a report of some sort from the Cyber Ninjas on Friday, September 24. This will be another press extravaganza designed to continue to disinform the public about elections generally and the 2020 General Election in Maricopa County. Many claims will be made. Most will probably have no evidence and will be difficult to verify.

We think the Ninjas will say they found more votes for Donald Trump and there are several areas where they continue to have questions because they have not been given all of the information they need from the Maricopa County officials.

I will address a few areas we suspect they will try to tell the public where they found problems.

Duplication

The Ninjas were confused about ballots that were duplicated; they were not sure which ballots to count or did not trust the duplication process. The Secretary of State reported that instead of counting the ballots that were duplicated and were actually counted in the official results the Ninjas decided to count the original ballots that had some sort of defect that prevented them from going through the vote counting machines.

Here is a table that shows the actual number of ballots that were duplicated during the entire election:

You can see there were a total of 27,457 ballots that were duplicated and included in the official results. These included mail and early ballots that were duplicated by the election boards before they went to the central count room where the ballots were tabulated. The remaining 7,436 ballots were those that were rejected by the tabulators for some reason and had to be duplicated.

There is no mystery here. There are clear, detailed public records available that account for each of these ballots.

Electronic Adjudication of Ballots By Adjudication Boards

The next area the Ninjas will probably complain about is the process of electronic adjudication. Electronic adjudication allows an expedited and accurate process of resolving ambiguous vote marks and determination of write-in vote marks. Maricopa County is the only county in Arizona that employs electronic adjudication, in part due to the size of the voting population and the number of ballots cast in their elections.

Here is a table that accounts for every ballot that underwent electronic adjudication:

This table shows that there were 2,089,563 total ballots counted. We have public records that confirm that each of these ballots were cast by a qualified voter and the daily records of ballot tabulation of Early, Provisional and Election Day ballots exactly matches the official results.

Much was made initially about the high percentage of ballots that required electronic adjudication. There were 235,392 ballots (11.27% of total ballots cast) that were reviewed by adjudication boards. The vast majority were contests (102K) for which no changes were made, the reason being that the oval was identified as being ‘ambiguous’ (an insufficiently filled in oval), and the adjudicator examined the oval and decided that the weak mark was actually vote intent. The weak mark was allowed to stand without changing anything. Finally, 132,139 ballots needed some sort of modification to resolve which whether the write-in mark was for a qualified candidate, which qualified write-in candidate should receive a vote, whether it was really an overvote or undervote.

11,954 of these electronically adjudicated ballots involved the Presidential Elector contest. There may have been other contests that had some issue with vote marks but the table below shows exactly what the issues were, how they were resolved and what the results were:

This data shows us a few very important things. First, the vast majority of these ballots (6,611) were marked for unqualified write-in candidates. Secondly, these adjudications awarded additional votes to all three Presidential candidates with Biden receiving 2,069 to Trump’s 1,516.

There is a detailed record for each one of these ballots, the actions taken and identification of the election board involved and the time the action was taken. In addition to those records that were produced at the time the action was taken there is a complete record of the adjudication action included with every digital image of every ballot no matter whether some ambiguity was resolved or not.

We anticipate that the Ninjas will once again demonstrate that they don’t know what they are doing. They will talk about counts that we will show are wrong. They will talk about various problems they have discovered. Most of these will be about things involving election administration and operation of the election systems which they did not understand when they started and haven’t learned about over the last six months.

They attempted to create a different result that would show Donald Trump won Arizona and they have failed.

Yet Another Delay for Public Records

Benny White, J.D.

September 17, 2021

As you know, we submitted a Public Records Request on August 11 for the ballot and vote counts generated by the Senate election review. We have not received those counts yet.

The Arizona Supreme Court dissolved the stay that was holding up the release of public records to American Oversight in its decision not to hear the appeal filed by the Senate. That decision by the Supreme Court threw the case back into Judge Kemp’s court for a final decision. Yesterday, Judge Kemp issued an order that may be helpful to break the logjam holding up release of these records.

The order tells the Senate to produce a pleading by the end of the day, Friday, September 17, listing all of the records they have received from the Ninjas and an expected schedule for the receipt of all records. If that pleading includes the counts we have requested we may be able to demand a response to our Public Records Request and get the counts in the near future, possibly before the Ninjas give their report to the Senate. I am not holding my breath.

However, Judge Kemp also prolonged the process, which he is required to do by legal procedures rules. Now, the principals in the American Oversight case will appear before Judge Kemp on October 7 to argue the issue of legislative immunity which the Senate is claiming to withhold records and redact vital information from documents they have produced.

That means we may not see the Ninja counts until sometime in mid- to late October, well after the Ninjas have submitted their “report” and the claims they make have been widely and frequently broadcast across the media outlets and social media without any way for us to factually counter what they claim.

The obfuscation by the Senate in contracting out important legislative work and then failing to properly supervise that work is frustrating for everyone. We are continuing to do everything we can to hold everyone involved accountable for the damage they have done and continue to do with this fraud.

Stay tuned.

Arizona Mystery: Did Cyber Ninjas Botch Another 2020 Presidential Recount Attempt?

Benny White, JD

September 13, 2012

Steve Rosenfeld did a great job of disclosing how the people in charge of the Arizona election review, whoever they are, are continuing to engage people who are incompetent to do what they are hired to do.

The most recent example is the hiring of “Dr. Shiva” who claims he knows how to do ballot image analysis but so far is unable to produce any results.

All of this is a part of a well-orchestrated disinformation campaign. These folks don’t really have to tell the public what is wrong with elections, they simply make a series of claims with no evidence to back them up.

If they ever produce a report, which is more questionable every day, we intend to completely destroy their claims, all of them, with facts and evidence.

Public Records Request for Ballot Images

Benny White, JD

September 2, 2021

I submitted a new public records request yesterday for a few ballot images and training materials related to electronic adjudication of ballots counted in the Maricopa County 2020 General Election.

Allegations were made that there were too many ballots modified and that there was no way to tell what changes were made. In addition, there were claims that the changes were made to ensure Joe Biden won. None of that was true.

Check out the recent public records request to learn what really happened and why we want to review a few ballot images.

Arizona Election Review – Tyranny Unabated

Benny White, JD

August 25, 2021

Sen. Karen demonstrated yesterday that she knows no limits to the extent she will go to cover up the mess she has created in Arizona.

She is going to convene a closed-door investigation but only use the data she contracted for to analyze the 2020 General Election in Maricopa County. She says this is all focused on increasing election integrity. Nonsense.

The legislature recently passed legislation to form an election oversight committee. Sen. Fann is not going to allow that committee of fellow legislators to be involved in reviewing or commenting on the election review report. Members of the Judiciary Committee with jurisdiction for elections? No way. Oh, no, she says, no outside comments will be considered. Really?

She doesn’t want to know how wrong the hand count and machine count really were so she is not going to consider any contrary facts. Just the Ninja circus counts. Eventually this phony report will be published and the disinformation campaign will continue on steroids. We will keep trying to present the facts in the case.

It is difficult for me to believe that our state legislators, Attorney General and Governor will sit silently on the sidelines with their hands folded and allow this tyranny to continue but that appears to be exactly what is going to happen.

Update – Arizona Court Proceedings in Public Records Cases

Benny White, JD

August 24, 2021

On Thursday of last week the Arizona Court of Appeals issued its decision that the trial court decisions in American Oversight v Fann would be upheld. There were two decisions by Judge Kemp at the trial court level earlier. One was that the Senate had to produce records being requested by various parties and that they had to collect records their agents had accumulated while doing work for the Senate. In addition, those records had to be produced by August 31.

On Friday, the Senate filed a Petition to Review (PR) with the Arizona Supreme Court in order to appeal the decision by the Court of Appeals. The immediate result of that action was to continue the Stay for release of public records that was ordered initially by the Court of Appeals before they heard the case last Wednesday. So, for the moment, no one is getting any public records from the Senate or their agents.

The Arizona Supreme Court is not obligated to grant review of the decision by the Court of Appeals. However, they probably will due to the fact that the matter is of statewide importance and involves a high level of public interest. The Justices can take their time to decide whether or not to hear the appeal and then when various pleadings must be filed. In short, I don’t expect a quick decision from the court but we might hear something by the end of next week.

Stay tuned.