J.D., Republican, Data Analyst for the Arizona Republican Party, Represent Pima County Administrator as member of Pima County Election Integrity Commission, 25 years of political activity, 14 years experience with election law, procedures and administration.
Dr. Shiva Ayyadurai’s ballot image analysis report has finally been published and has about the same value as the reports published in September 2021 by the CyberNinjas and Randy Pullen. They are all worthless, but very misleading and expensive. Dr. Ayyadurai’s report is an extensive disinformation effort.
To summarize, Dr. Ayyadurai’s claims of differences between his analysis and the Dominion results reflect his misunderstanding of electronic adjudication in particular and election administration in general. Our analysis of his report shows how Dr. Ayyadurai’s faulty analysis can be easily explained with an accurate review of the Cast Vote Record, invalidating his conclusions.
I’ve just finished transcribing the 724 page PDF document submitted by Randy Pullen on September 24, 2021 and released to the public on October 10, 2021 into machine-readable form. It’s posted on our website in an Excel workbook format.
There are a huge number of mistakes in the report, boxes missing, batches counted in boxes where the batches were not really there, missing batches that were in the boxes, miscounting ballots in the boxes and in the batches.
This effort to translate the PDF document into a machine-readable format took a tremendous amount of time and work but was necessary so we can properly analyze what the “auditors” did during the machine count.
I have updated our November 15 with links to the new machine count spreadsheet. Here is a link to the report and another one directly to the spreadsheet if you want to analyze it for yourself.
I intend to get a complete analysis report out before the end of the year with the details about the errors made during the machine count.
We have finished our review of the documents published by the Arizona Senate on November 1. Here is our report.
Sen. Karen Fann and several other Senate members authorized an investigation of the 2020 Maricopa County General Election and told the court and the public that the purpose of the audit was for election integrity. She said the audit of Maricopa County would find various laws and procedures that needed to be improved and that the improvements would be included in new legislation.
If Senator Fann was really interested in finding out the problems that the Arizona counties had during the 2020 General Election she would have surveyed all 15 Arizona counties, not just Maricopa County. Each county has its own set of issues to deal with. She would have coordinated her survey with the Arizona Secretary of State and the county Recorders and elections directors. She did none of that. Instead she hired a company with ZERO experience dealing with elections and election audits, had no knowledge of Arizona election law and procedures but had extremely close ties to the Trump campaign.
We can now see the results. It does not paint a flattering picture of Arizona or our state legislators.
The Senate “forensic audit” lasted 7 months, spent $9 million and produced meaningless results.
Sen. Karen Fann and the Cyber Ninjas “tried” to hand count 2.1 million ballots and proved a couple of things.
They were not able to accurately hand count either the number of ballots cast in the Maricopa County 2020 General Election or the votes on those ballots, and
They spent about $9 million over 7 months, so far, and have proven absolutely nothing.
The Ninjas were convinced that the auditors could not trust anything the county said and the Dominion election management system could not count the ballots or the votes correctly or had been manipulated so that the official results were not valid.
This presumption was fatal to the validity of the “forensic audit”. It caused them to never actually audit the election results but rather to attempt to create a new result that the public would accept. Unfortunately, the procedures they followed and the records they kept and relied on to announce results were so erroneous that nothing they reported could be relied on by the public.
Yesterday, October 15, 2021 the unannounced campaign of Donald Trump for President 2024 issued a Press Release which contained a number of false claims about what happened in the 2020 General Election in Pima County.
I used official public records to completely debunk every claim made by Trump and his acolyte, Dr. Shiva. You can read the rebuttal here.
At the close of business Friday, October 8, the Senate’s lawyer, Kory Langhofer posted the full report Randy Pullen submitted to the Senate on September 24.
We initially introduced the concept of “disaffected voters” in our earlier work. Now we need to introduce one more new concept to describe our work and that is “Boxes of Interest.” When we looked at the recent report we saw a number of boxes where there was a difference between the reported Ninja hand count of ballots and the Senate machine count. We decided that where there was a difference of at least 25 ballots we would take a further look at those particular “boxes of interest” to see what, if any, those differences made in the credibility of the ballot counts of the Ninja hand count and Senate machine count. Here is a table that shows the impact.
The Arizona Republic highlighted our finding that over 311,000 ballots were involved in the boxes of interest where the Ninja hand count and the Senate machine count differed significantly. This large number of ballots breaks down into 167,000 where the Ninjas did not report anything about their hand count and 144,000 where they did report something but there were still significant differences with the machine count.
Our initial analysis showed the report completely discredited any comments made by Pullen or Doug Logan about the accuracy of the Senate “forensic audit.” For example, Pullen now says the report he submitted, and Sen. Fann subsequently submitted to the Attorney General when she asked for a criminal investigation of everything the Ninjas have been saying, was only preliminary. Since it is the only report of the extended audit that has been released to the public we are now going through that report in detail to see how it stacks up against the official results.
The answer is not very well. The report is very difficult to deal with. It is 695 pages long (actually 724) in PDF format. The first thing we have to do is put the information into a machine readable format to compare the hand count and machine count numbers against the official results. We use Microsoft Excel for that part of the work.
Then we try to figure out which boxes and ballots are indicated by the entries in the report. Sometimes this is straightforward and the “First Batch” entry can be related to the Ballot Manifest reported by Maricopa County. At other times we have to look at the Batch numbers and find them in the official results using the Cast Vote Record. That allows us to compare the official results of ballot counts to both the Senate machine count and the Ninja hand count of ballots.
There are problems with both the Ninjas reporting and the Senate’s supposedly final report submitted to the Senate on September 24. Doug Logan claimed to have an accurate ballot and vote count which is impossible to verify. There were also numerous claims about voter registration and voting irregularities which have been fully investigated and debunked by Maricopa County and other election knowledgeable experts.
The machine count report shows many batches of ballots that were actually counted by the machines are not reported in the report even though it is apparent by the total count that the batches missing from the report are included in the machine count total. This shows the confusion in the way Randy Pullen published his report.
Sometimes it is just impossible to figure out what the report is trying to say, as with the two boxes of 15592, which actually had 1988 and 946 ballots for a total of 2934, instead of 1280 and 1652, for a total of 2932. Someone, at some point, moved ballots around in these two boxes. The total votes for the two boxes, combined, should be correct but the boxes don’t agree with the official results after the Ninjas have gone through them.
Here’s the ballot manifest sheet for Pallet 40 where these boxes lived. It is not a lot of help either.
There are always transposition errors where someone along the line wrote something down and when someone else tried to read it or enter it into a spreadsheet they made a mistake. There are also boxes where the batches are obviously counted twice, and there were more than just a few.
Our bottom line is that there are so many errors in the machine count report and the disagreements it shows between the machine count and the hand count that nothing the Ninjas or Randy Pullen have to say about how many ballots have been counted or how many votes anyone received cannot be considered accurate. That and the fact that Doug Logan is still saying that the Ninjas have not finished reconciling the hand count numbers (of ballots) convince us, once again, that any discussion of votes based on this “forensic audit” are completely meaningless.
The official results announced last November were correct then and they are still correct today.
Today Maricopa County issued reports debunking all of the claims made by the Cyber Ninjas and their self-proclaimed image analysis expert.
The Ninjas never took the time to inform themselves about Arizona election law or election administration and associated procedures. As a result they spent six months and millions of dollars concocting a bizarre series of claims about irregularities in voter registration and voting that were completely debunked by election officials and others who actually know about elections in a matter of minutes.
Dr. Shiva did not have a clue about the Arizona mail voting system or how mail ballots are verified before they are counted. As a result he completely embarrassed himself by producing a fantasy in an attempt to call the election into question. All he had to do was ask an Arizona election official but he chose to jump the shark and the fantasy went up in a puff of smoke.
Now Randy Pullen is upset with us because we challenged his report of the machine counts of ballots. All he has to do is publish a complete report instead on the erroneous counts of ballots on one pallet out of forty three pallets. We’re waiting Randy. Suggestion – first talk to Doug Logan to see if he ever finished the hand count and then work with him to get your story straight.
We should get a favorable decision from the courts in the next couple of weeks that will allow us to get the public records and then we will painstakingly go through every line of the reports of counts to show the world what a complete waste of time and money this whole fiasco has been.
The Senate is scheduled to receive a report of some sort from the Cyber Ninjas on Friday, September 24. This will be another press extravaganza designed to continue to disinform the public about elections generally and the 2020 General Election in Maricopa County. Many claims will be made. Most will probably have no evidence and will be difficult to verify.
We think the Ninjas will say they found more votes for Donald Trump and there are several areas where they continue to have questions because they have not been given all of the information they need from the Maricopa County officials.
I will address a few areas we suspect they will try to tell the public where they found problems.
The Ninjas were confused about ballots that were duplicated; they were not sure which ballots to count or did not trust the duplication process. The Secretary of State reported that instead of counting the ballots that were duplicated and were actually counted in the official results the Ninjas decided to count the original ballots that had some sort of defect that prevented them from going through the vote counting machines.
Here is a table that shows the actual number of ballots that were duplicated during the entire election:
You can see there were a total of 27,457 ballots that were duplicated and included in the official results. These included mail and early ballots that were duplicated by the election boards before they went to the central count room where the ballots were tabulated. The remaining 7,436 ballots were those that were rejected by the tabulators for some reason and had to be duplicated.
There is no mystery here. There are clear, detailed public records available that account for each of these ballots.
Electronic Adjudication of Ballots By Adjudication Boards
The next area the Ninjas will probably complain about is the process of electronic adjudication. Electronic adjudication allows an expedited and accurate process of resolving ambiguous vote marks and determination of write-in vote marks. Maricopa County is the only county in Arizona that employs electronic adjudication, in part due to the size of the voting population and the number of ballots cast in their elections.
Here is a table that accounts for every ballot that underwent electronic adjudication:
This table shows that there were 2,089,563 total ballots counted. We have public records that confirm that each of these ballots were cast by a qualified voter and the daily records of ballot tabulation of Early, Provisional and Election Day ballots exactly matches the official results.
Much was made initially about the high percentage of ballots that required electronic adjudication. There were 235,392 ballots (11.27% of total ballots cast) that were reviewed by adjudication boards. The vast majority were contests (102K) for which no changes were made, the reason being that the oval was identified as being ‘ambiguous’ (an insufficiently filled in oval), and the adjudicator examined the oval and decided that the weak mark was actually vote intent. The weak mark was allowed to stand without changing anything. Finally, 132,139 ballots needed some sort of modification to resolve which whether the write-in mark was for a qualified candidate, which qualified write-in candidate should receive a vote, whether it was really an overvote or undervote.
11,954 of these electronically adjudicated ballots involved the Presidential Elector contest. There may have been other contests that had some issue with vote marks but the table below shows exactly what the issues were, how they were resolved and what the results were:
This data shows us a few very important things. First, the vast majority of these ballots (6,611) were marked for unqualified write-in candidates. Secondly, these adjudications awarded additional votes to all three Presidential candidates with Biden receiving 2,069 to Trump’s 1,516.
There is a detailed record for each one of these ballots, the actions taken and identification of the election board involved and the time the action was taken. In addition to those records that were produced at the time the action was taken there is a complete record of the adjudication action included with every digital image of every ballot no matter whether some ambiguity was resolved or not.
We anticipate that the Ninjas will once again demonstrate that they don’t know what they are doing. They will talk about counts that we will show are wrong. They will talk about various problems they have discovered. Most of these will be about things involving election administration and operation of the election systems which they did not understand when they started and haven’t learned about over the last six months.
They attempted to create a different result that would show Donald Trump won Arizona and they have failed.